G - Daniel Hackett - VIR -10.8 - vs PAR
Twice under (or over) performer is unlikely in a double week. As you may have realised by now, we just looove to play this pattern! VIR is meeting up with PAR again with already one victory in the bag against them. Circumstances are somewhat different this time around though. VIR is trying to find balance during Shengelia's absence and PAR needs to pursue every game in order to remain in the play-in zone. Hackett has cooled down from his hot spell a few weeks ago but we think he will regain his previous form in this game. PAR is #1 in fouls committed in the league and VIR's experienced guard will try to take advantage of this. We expect him to draw a lot of contact and amass PIR points through his physical game.
G - Kendrick Nunn - PAO - 10.4 - @ ZAL
Nunn was quiet in PAO's big night against EA7. After his explosive introduction in the league, opposing defences have started adjusting to his offensive style, leading to lower scoring efficiency. Nunn feels better when he has a creative point guard on his side to draw defensive attention away from him but Sloukas won't be on the court against ZAL. However, ZAL is #2 in committed fouls in the league and Nunn can definitely take advantage of this. We saw EFS crumble in this court a couple days ago as ZAL is picking up the pace during this part of the season. PAO will be a tougher cookie though, and will rely mainly on Nunn to bail him out in this tough matchup.
C - Josh Nebo - MTA - 13.1 - @ BKN
This is a risky pick but we think it is worth it. BKN is struggling with injuries and they seem unlikely to match MTA's high pace. BKN's defence in the paint is not particularly strong and with Moneke attracting more offensive responsibilities, there will be even more space for Nebo to cause some damage with his rebounding and pick'n'roll moves. That is if the game doesn't turn into a blowout, resulting in limited playtime for all main players, Nebo included. We think BKN will remain competitive and we will see a high scoring pace. Bread and butter for powerful, agile players like Nebo.
C - Vincent Poirier - RMB - 12.7 - vs ASV
Ok this is going against the double-week pattern we have been preaching all this time. But let's admit it is difficult to ignore Poirier's appeal while Tavares is out. Especially when he has been paying back our trust. There is no reason to elaborate further. He is faster than ASV's frontcourt but also strong enough to match Youssoupha's size in the paint. So we will stick with him once again and hope that this is the one in a few cases that reason will prevail over patterns.
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