G - Diego Flaccadori - EA7 - 4.7 - vs PAO
EA7 is going through a consolidation phase, partly as a result of multiple injuries. This is a process that calls in the front players buried deep within a team's bench, creating more often than not unexpected heroes (EFS is another example here). Flaccadori has answered the call with two back-to-back games with over 20mins (32' @ BAR, 23' vs ASV) and double digit PIR. We think the pattern will continue this time around. Despite both teams coming with boosted psychological status, (EA7 after their victory @BAR and PAO @ASM), we expect a tight game with relatively low score (EA7's speciality). PAO's defence will naturally focus on Shields and Melli, EA7's two go-to guys, Flaccadori will have some extra room to cause some damage. This is a pick with potentially meaningful reward given its very limited downside.
F - Mario Hezonja - RMB - 11.0 - vs PAR
This is another attempt at picking Hezonja and hopefully will go better than the last one... PAR is hot, coming to Madrid after a series of 5 (!) wins, but so is Mario! With four consecutive double digit games and avg 25mins playtime, Mario has found the space in RMB's superteam that he was looking for since the beginning of the year and it is paying off. PAR is one of the best offences in the league and we expect a high-tempo game with multiple players contributing and we think Mario will not shy away. Nobody can forget the huge brawl that took place the last time these two teams met in this court for the 2022-2023 playoff series. Normally spirits will again be elevated, and these are exactly the conditions that Hezonja thrives in.
G - Carsen Edwards - BAY - 9.2 - vs ASM
We will stick with Carsen once more. He had a decent game against EFS (14.3 PIR) despite Isaac Bonga stilling his thunder in the second half of the game. But we think this coming round is even more suited to his style. ASM's powerful forward line-up will put pressure on BAY's wings, forcing them to rely on their guards and centers (Ibaka will play a major role in this game) for score generation, playmaking and hassle plays. BAY has a great momentum which will try to capitalise in their home court against a team that will try to bounce back after a shocking home defeat by PAO. They will both rely on their backcourt to set the pace which we think will result in a high volume game. This is Edwards' bread and butter...
F - Alec Peters - OLY - 12.6 - @ ASV
OLY's offensive cornerstone finds its place in this list once again. After a timeout to attend his child's birth, Peters went back to court against VIR in a very tough matchup with the Italian defence. After a very strong start, VIR adjusted to OLY's physical game and blocked any scoring opportunities, leaving Peters with very little contribution in the second half. OLY is struggling a lot without Peters in the court. The team's problematic recruiting limits its offensive capacity and Peters is paramount at that. Against ASV, OLY is looking to find its way back to positive results after two consecutive defeats. We think the time is nigh for OLY to bounce back with Peters leading the way against ASV's anaemic defence.
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