How we come up with picks?
Before we start picking players for the season we need to set the rules. Well...we have already set the rules, but we will just do you the courtesy of letting you know.
A pick is ultimately a conviction that a player will earn many fantasy points in the next round. It is easy to select the best players in the game and call them "picks" but this is not how we play this game. Firstly, budget is a meaningful constraint, at least for the first half of the season but mainly secondly, boasting about it to your mates (the main reason we play Euroleague Fantasy) will earn little respect if the pick is obvious to everyone.
We decided to come up with a method of identifying picks by taking into account performance and value, without resorting to the obvious ones (not always at least...). We call this method...the "Golden Rule".
So, without further ado our Golden Rule is....
Expected Performance Index Rating (Expected PIR) / Player Fantasy Value ≥ 1.5
Keep in mind that even though this rule will apply to all the players we pick, we don't run all the available players through some algorithm spitting out the best picks (yet). This means there may be players, other than the ones that will be ultimately mentioned, that could still be picks but we think they have less merit than the rest. And what we think is what matters! Picking remains an art and not a science (for now...)!
Some considerations when calculating the Golden Rule:
- Fantasy points for expected team win are ignored
- Too Big To Fail Penalty -> +2 Imaginary Points to a Player's Fantasy Value (Stricter Golden Rule)
Now, in human tongue:
Golden Rule
Good players are expensive because they are expected to post high PIR in almost every round, making them obvious picks for everyone. In order to prevent ourselves from basing our picks only on expensive players, we determine the quality of a pick in relation to its cost. A player satisfies the Golden Rule only if he is expected to get at least 1.5 PIR for each credit his Fantasy Value costs.
Too Big To Fail Penalty
Any player with Fantasy Value greater than 13 represents a disproportionate burden for the overall budget (ie money needs to be spared from another pick) and he is penalized by having his Fantasy Value increased by 2 credits in the various qualifying calculations - hence more difficult to pass the Golden Rule.
Examples
Golden Rule Pass
A player is expected to achieve 20 PIR. This player is worth 12 Fantasy Value credits. This player satisfies the Golden Rule (20/12 > 1.5), so we pick them!
Golden Rule Fail
A player is expected to achieve 15 PIR. This player is worth 11 Fantasy Value credits. This player doesn't satisfy the Golden Rule (15/11 < 1.5), so we do not pick them and prefer to spend our valuable 11 credits to someone else!
Too Big To Fail
A player is worth 14. His Fantasy Value exceeds the threshold of 13 credits therefore the Golden Rule is calculated assuming his value is 16 (14 Fantasy Value + 2 Imaginary Points). Effectively, the 2 Imaginary Points are a penalty. This player needs to have an expected PIR of at least 24 in order to pass the Golden Rule (24/16 = 1.5) and be a pick for us.